Lately, we’ve been getting a version of the same question:
Should I be worried about what’s happening with oil and the Middle East?
It makes sense. Prices have moved quickly, headlines feel heavy, and when geopolitics and markets intersect, it can create the sense that something bigger is unfolding.
But before reacting, it’s worth stepping back and putting some structure around what’s actually happening.
What’s Driving the Move in Oil
Over the past few weeks, oil has climbed from roughly $70 to around $100 per barrel. This kind of move is almost always tied to supply disruption, and in this case, it centers on the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows.
With conflict in the region, tanker traffic has slowed significantly. Oil is getting backed up, storage capacity is filling, and producers are being forced to cut output—not strategically, but because the system is constrained. That chain reaction is what’s driving prices higher.
Why It Feels So Unsettled
What’s made this feel particularly unsettling is how quickly things have shifted.
Prices have moved up, pulled back on signs of potential relief, and then climbed again as disruptions persist. That kind of back-and-forth isn’t necessarily a signal that something is broken—it’s what markets look like when they’re processing uncertainty in real time.
And underneath all of this is the real question most investors are asking: What does this mean for my portfolio?
What History Would Suggest
We’ve seen this pattern before.
Oil spiked to nearly $128 per barrel in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, pushing gas prices above $5 per gallon in the U.S. At the time, it felt disruptive and concerning—and it was—but markets and the broader economy adjusted over time.
Not immediately, and not without volatility, but the system adapted as supply and demand rebalanced.
That pattern—shock, volatility, adjustment, recovery—has repeated across many different geopolitical events.
What’s Different This Time
One reason this cycle may look a bit different today is that the U.S. is in a stronger position than in past decades.
As the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, the U.S. has more flexibility to respond to higher prices by increasing production. That doesn’t eliminate the impact globally, but it does provide a degree of resilience that didn’t exist during earlier oil shocks.
How This Shows Up in the Real Economy
For consumers, the effects tend to show up gradually.
Gas prices have moved back toward roughly $3.50 per gallon and could rise further. More broadly, higher energy costs feed into transportation, manufacturing, and overall business expenses—what economists refer to as cost-push inflation.
The important nuance here is that supply-driven inflation tends to be viewed as transitory, meaning it often fades as conditions stabilize or the economy adjusts.
What Markets Are Doing
In markets, the impact is rarely uniform.
While broader indexes have been relatively stable year-to-date, energy stocks have actually benefited, rising about 25% this year, with commodities more broadly also moving higher.
It’s a useful reminder that diversification isn’t just a concept—it’s something that plays out in real time during periods like this.
Bringing It Back to Your Plan
All of this brings us back to the part that matters most.
Moments like this—when uncertainty rises and headlines feel more urgent—are exactly what long-term investment plans are designed to navigate. Not by avoiding volatility, but by anticipating that it will happen.
There will always be events that feel different in the moment. And in many ways, they are. But over time, the pattern tends to be more consistent than it feels when you’re in it.
The goal isn’t to predict each twist in the story. It’s to stay anchored to a plan that already accounts for the fact that there will be twists at all.
The Bottom Line
Oil prices will move. Headlines will evolve. Markets will react.
But long-term outcomes are rarely determined by any single event.
They’re shaped by how we respond to them.
And more often than not, the most effective response is staying grounded in a plan that was built with moments like this in mind.
If current events are raising questions or concerns, we’re always here to talk them through—thoughtfully, calmly, and in the context of your long-term goals.
Uplevel Wealth is a fee-only, fiduciary wealth management firm serving clients in Portland, OR, and virtually throughout the U.S.
